Analyzing the market is a constant balancing act between sticking to your guns and acknowledging when a situation is changing. The average trading day is packed with intraday noise that can easily cause you to question your established views. A good example of this right here is Yahoo! Inc (YHOO). Following up Friday's chatter we have a report that the company is going to tap the former chief executive of Autodesk as its new leader. A look to the intraday chart shows this caused a brief stir in the stock. Emphasis on brief...
Chart Courtesy of Thomson Financial
The shares popped to a new high for the session but almost immediately gave the gains back. To add some perspective on the situation, we can turn to the daily chart...
Chart Courtesy of Thomson Financial
The first thing to point out is that today's intraday flurry is minor. Even at its best levels, the shares were still trading below yesterday's high. As they stand now, they are down roughly 30 cents.
The question becomes whether new leadership will be able to drag the company out of its current doldrums. For the most part, I have taken a rather skeptical view of the stock and any rallies. Nearly two months ago I offered this -
"Is it just me or does it feel like every couple of months shares of Yahoo! Inc (YHOO) stage a rally and lure people in? I just looked over the list of today's top performing names and, of course, see Yahoo."
The stock is down 10 cents since that post. Then last month I revisited the disappointing technical performance and touched on analyst ratings. I left that post saying I am not sure what would inspire upgrades on the company.
That brings me back to my opening statements about balance. On one hand I believe there is ample evidence for skepticism here. However, a change in leadership can bring new ideas and spur upgrades.
As I weigh these two factors, I am left with sticking to my guns. A change at the top may revive the stock but I think there have been too many false starts to take that on faith alone.
Copyright Schaeffer's Investment Research http://www.schaeffersresearch.com