As usual, there was a good deal of hype about what Steve Jobs would say today. A quick Google search will give you a few hundred (thousand?) stories on the new iPods but what caught my eye is the price action in Apple Inc (AAPL). Specifically, it is the lack of action that piqued my interest.

As regular readers may have noticed, I tend not to offer many direct comments on Apple. The primary reason for that is because I view this as a special case. It is what I like to call a "story stock" - a term I defined a couple of years ago. This is a stock that trades on pure emotion. Emotion that is fed by a steady stream of new buzz from the company.

However, today's event seems somewhat lacking in terms of feeding the buzz. The stock is down 4% and flirting with breaking the lows from late-July/early-August.

Chart Courtesy of Thomson Financial

In other words, we appear to be a key juncture for the stock. Now before I get too dramatic, I need to point out that this isn't the first time we have seen this sort of lethargic response. Back in March, I noted that the stock didn't appear to be benefiting from news as it sat at support near 120. As the weekly chart below shows, the shares did eventually see buyers step in.

Chart Courtesy of Thomson Financial

However, that buying demand faltered as the stock approached the December 2007 peak. Since then we have a series of lower highs that suggest weakening demand for the shares.

This confluence of events leaves us with a technical picture shaping up as such - the stock is testing short-term support amid weakening intermediate-term action. The short-term relative strength index (RSI) shows the stock is oversold, which should suggest a bounce. Furthermore, we have an event that should help fuel the buzz fires. But yet, no bounce - at least not today.

As I have noted for a long time, the primary risk I see comes from the potential for downgrades. According to Zacks, 17 of 20 analysts (85 percent) rank the stock with a "buy" rating. For years now the company has earned that optimism with a steady push of buzz that has fueled the stock's rally. I can't say how long that run will last but logic suggests that it won't go forever.

I think the key is to watch the chart and be cognizant of weakening price action. If we do see short-term breakdown here, the February/March lows are the next layer of meaningful support.