I admit, I sometimes get sucked into infomercials. I don't know what it is but seeing Ron Popeil wielding a flavor injector makes me feel an uncontrollable urge to cook a chicken. I offer this bit of knowledge, and risk of sharing too much, because I wonder if that same infomercial weakness influences my fondness for TASER International Inc (TASR). I can't watch the television series COPS without marveling at what an incredible tool TASER makes.
However, over the years I have learned that just because a company makes an interesting product, that doesn't necessarily mean it makes for a good stock to buy. To make an analysis of the stock, I need to examine the sentiment profile and look at the technical action of the stock itself. Let's start with the chart.
Chart Courtesy of Thomson Financial
This daily view shows how the stock has traded this year, and much of it hasn't been pretty. The grey zone near 13 is left over from a post I wrote in February - Is the Short-Term Momentum on TASER International Inc. (TASR) Fading? - that discussed how the stock was hitting resistance. After getting rejected at that zone, the shares slid until July, where they finally bottomed near 5.
What is interesting here is that the stock has finally broken that downtrend. I would consider this a fairly positive development. In addition to the zone discussed above, I have highlight support near 6. This area marked the mid-July mini-peak and then served as near-term support on a pullback earlier this month. I would like to see the shares hold above that zone.
When we turn to the sentiment picture, we see a somewhat mixed view. Regular readers may remember, TASER has tended to be a heavily-shorted stock and that is still the case. According to data collected by our Quantified Analysis group, 21% of the stock's float is currently sold short. However, note the chart to the right. Total short interest has been on the decline. Part of this could be simple profit taking as the stock moved lower. The question now is whether we see that continue. Covering short positions in a declining stock carries little urgency. However, with the stock now showing signs of a short-term bottom, I wonder if that will increase the pace?
On the other side of the sentiment coin are analysts. When it comes to the opinion on the Street, it seems that I am not the only one with a fondness for stun guns. According to Zacks, 5 of 5 analysts rank the stock with a "buy" rating. I would note this as a mild concern. As a contrarian, I want to find situations where expectations are low. I am looking for a stock that offers the potential of an upside surprise. In this case, it doesn't seem like we have that potential since the Street is already enthusiastic. The reason I rate this as a mild concern, instead of something stronger, is that we are only talking about 5 analysts in total. This is a relatively low total following so there is the potential for other analysts to still "find" the stock.
Overall, I think the short-term technical action shows the early stages of a potential turnaround. The stock is near overbought levels at this point so I don't think I would chase it here but I am setting some alerts for pullbacks.
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