Watching Apple Inc (AAPL) as a Broad Market Barometer

Tags: AAPL
24 Sep 2:02am
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Few companies have been able to captivate the investing world like Apple Inc (AAPL). Steve Jobs has pushed out wave after wave of buzz generating products and the stock has gone along for the ride. However, the shares have struggled recently. They are down 33% this year and are now showing a loss compared to where they sat a year ago. I think that second point is worth expanding on. If you compare the current price to where it stood 52 weeks ago, we haven't seen a net loss since mid-2003. A look to the monthly chart shows that coincides with the beginning of the massive uptrend that has been in place. In other words, this could be a sign that the long-term momentum is starting to wane.

A rollover in Apple would obviously be significant for those holding the shares but it would also offer us a clue to the health of the underlying market. If investors are staring to bail on such a well-liked stock it would suggest that perhaps they are extremely skittish in general.

In a post last week, I noted that Apple shares had broken short-term support and were on their way to testing a critical longer-term level. The stock did test that support on Thursday and then staged a small bounce. However, the rebound was short-lived and the shares have now begun to pullback toward those lows. To a large degree, this action mirrors that of the broad market.

How the stock reacts here should offer a good read of the underlying willingness and ability to buy. As noted last week, Apple is a Wall Street darling. According to Zacks, 16 of 21 analysts (76 percent) rank the stock with a "buy" rating. With the shares threatening a longer-term breakdown, it will be interesting to see if the Street comes out to defend the stock or begins to run away. Keep an eye on last week's low...


Chart Courtesy of Thomson Financial


Chart Courtesy of Thomson Financial


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