Warnings Signs from China Mobile Ltd. (CHL)

Tags: CHL
13 Aug 3:26am
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Shares of China Mobile Ltd. (CHL) are showing signs of a technical breakdown. The stock is down 26% this year and now trading at levels not seen since last summer. This comes after a strong run last year. A strong run that still seems to have the optimists holding on. To see what I mean, let's start with the weekly chart.


Chart Courtesy of Thomson Financial

Regular readers may remember that this is not the first time I have offered cautious comments on this stock. In late-March I posted this piece - China Mobile Ltd. (CHL) - Time to Jump Ship? - which discussed the near-term downtrend. In all fairness, I was wrong then. At least on a short-term basis. As the chart above shows, the stock did offer a quick pop but that ran its course by mid-April.

The weekly chart above is now set-up to show the former support sitting near the March lows. It looks like buyers tried to support the stock there last month but selling pressure dominated. Today's drop of 8% leaves support firmly broken.

The reason that I am noting this breakdown is that it doesn't appear as if it has been widely recognized. For example, the Street is still holding a mostly bullish opinion. According to Zacks, 5 of 6 analysts (83 percent) rank the stock with a "buy" rating. Also, as my colleague Elizabeth Harrow noted last week, the put/call ratio has been steadily grinding lower, indicating optimism.

The stock is showing a short-term oversold reading here but I wouldn't get too excited about. The former support now looms as overhead resistance and I would be concerned that some of the bulls may now be looking to sell into any strength.


Copyright Schaeffer's Investment Research http://www.schaeffersresearch.com

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Schaeffer’s Investment Research, founded by Bernie Schaeffer in 1981, is a research-driven provider of investment research and recommendations featuring a unique, time-tested analysis of investor expectations. Schaeffer's contrarian approach, called Expectational Analysis®, focuses on stocks with technical and fundamental trends that run counter to investor expectations. The firm publishes Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor, the nation's leading options subscription publication and it's website, www.SchaeffersResearch.com, is recognized as one of the leading information sources for stock and options traders and was cited as the top options website by both Forbes and Barron's.