Revisiting eBay Inc, Google Inc, Microsoft Corporation, and MEMC Electronic Materials Inc

Tags: GOOG
25 Jul 12:10am
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In a post at the end of last month - 50 Reasons to be Cautious of eBay Inc, Google Inc, Microsoft Corporation, and MEMC Electronic Materials Inc - I discussed stocks that were heavily favored by the Street but had shown an intermediate-term breakdown. The four stocks I focused on, obviously, were those of eBay Inc (EBAY), Google Inc (GOOG), Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), and MEMC Electronic Materials Inc (WFR). Late last night my colleague Joe Hargett noted that shares of WFR were getting hit after a disappointing earnings report. This spurred me to revisit the stocks mentioned above.

In particular, I thought it might be interesting to update the table displayed in last month's post. However, instead of showing the weekly chart next to analyst recommendations, I wanted to show a chart-vs-chart comparison. The chart on the left is the same displayed in the original post. The one on the right is updated with current data. While the one on the right technically does have all of the data as the one on the left, I am using this to highlight how the situations are evolving.

For instance, let's focus on WFR. At the end of last month, we had a stock that was struggling but still holding its recent lows. Now we have a stock that has firmly violated those recent lows. Analysts appeared to be holding out hope but with the technical breakdown following the disappointing fundamental results, you have to wonder if they are ready to start throwing in the towel. That is an important question for investors to consider as it could provide future selling pressure. In other words, those still holding the stock may be looking to sell into any strength. That could keep a cap on near-term rallies.

We have a similar situations with both Google and eBay. Last week brought disappointing earnings from Google and disappointing earnings from eBay and both stocks showed a technical breakdown. In the case of GOOG, the stock is still holding above its March bottom but EBAY has violated its lows from earlier this year. A look to Microsoft also shows a breakdown that followed disappointing comments .

As noted above about WFR, I think the key takeaway here is that analyst opinion has lagged the price action. In other words, we have seen breakdowns that the Street wasn't anticipating. This creates a short-term disconnect that will eventually need to be resolved. Either the technical and fundamental situations need to turn around or downgrades will continue to hang over the stocks.

Chart as of 6/30/2008
Current Chart
Price Charts Courtesy of Thomson Financial


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Schaeffer’s Investment Research, founded by Bernie Schaeffer in 1981, is a research-driven provider of investment research and recommendations featuring a unique, time-tested analysis of investor expectations. Schaeffer's contrarian approach, called Expectational Analysis®, focuses on stocks with technical and fundamental trends that run counter to investor expectations. The firm publishes Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor, the nation's leading options subscription publication and it's website, www.SchaeffersResearch.com, is recognized as one of the leading information sources for stock and options traders and was cited as the top options website by both Forbes and Barron's.