Shares of Baidu.com, Inc. (BIDU) are at a critical juncture here. After a strong run up from their March lows, they began a short-term downtrend that has brought them back to support that sits near 300. This leaves the stock with two opposing forces at work on the technical front. What makes this situation even more potentially volatile is that the sentiment indicators show short sellers are at odds with analysts. Here is what I am looking at.
Chart Courtesy of Thomson Financial
Here we have the daily chart that shows how the short-term downtrend (red line) is about to collide with support near 300 (grey zone). When I last discussed Baidu.com in May, I discussed the "encouraging consolidation" and said the stock looked interesting. If we do see a break of the support zone, I would have to abandon that view.
As far as the sentiment measures I mentioned, the charts to the right show what I am seeing.
Total short interest on BIDU has decreased slightly recently but still stands at relatively high levels.
According to data collected by our Quantified Analysis group, 12% of the stock's float is currently sold short.
Now compare that to the opinion on the Street. According to Zacks, 8 of 12 analysts rank the stock with a "buy" rating.
In other words, short sellers seem to be looking for a decline while two-thirds of analysts view the stock as a "buy".
The last piece of data shown relates to the options world where we also see optimism as the put/call ratio sits in the lower 20% of its yearly range.
When you add this all up you see that we have different groups with different expectations.
If we see a break of that support, we have the potential for downgrades from the Street.
If we see a bounce off support that breaks the near-term downtrend, we have the potential for short-covering to add more buying demand.
As I said above, I am watching that support closely as a breakdown would negate comments I made about the constructive price action.
As always, you can follow these sentiment indicators yourself by checking the quote page or by adding the stock to your Watch List..
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