A look to the action today shows gold stocks have found a bid. Companies such as
Goldcorp Incorporated (GG), Gold Fields Limited (GFI), Newmont Mining Corp (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX) are posting double-digit gains. Other stocks, such as Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) and the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), are showing milder gains. Given the run, I thought it was worth looking into the sentiment backdrop.
Regular readers may remember that gold stocks have been the subject of optimism from option players since August. I touched on this topic last month in this post - Optimism on Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc, Newmont Mining Corp, Hecla Mining Co, and Barrick Gold Corp - and then later revisited Freeport-McMoRan after it hit a new annual low. Throughout this period, my concern has been the distinct preference for call options (a.k.a. optimism) amid very weak price performance. My experience has been that bottoms usually don't occur when they are widely expected.
So, with today's gains I think it is worth checking the the International Securities Exchange (ISE) buy-to-open data for the last five days. I netted call accumulations for the last five days against put accumulations over that time. The number displayed shows any imbalances. For example, Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold (FCX) shows 9,155 Calls. This means there have been 9,155 more calls purchased than puts purchased. Since this is buy-to-open data, this can be a good way to identify optimism. The last column shows the return for the last 20 days.
As you can see, the preference for calls has (mostly) continued. The obvious exception is Gold Fields (GFI), which showed up on today's options skew scan with some put activity.
The table shows us that nearly all of those stocks have lost ground in the last month. This comes as the streetTRACKS Gold (GLD) is relatively flat. However, to get a better feel for the performance, we need to look at the charts. Below are the daily graphs for a few of the names.
Charts Courtesy of Thomson Financial
With the exception of Freeport-McMoRan, the charts show these stocks have been holding above their October lows. This might be spurring some of the enthusiasm. However, these stocks are still locked in a downtrend. Given the optimism and still overall weak price action, I think that any rallies will likely be fleeting. Though, I do admit that the put activity on GFI is worth monitoring.
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