Let's start with the bad. Shares of Intel Corp (INTC) are hitting a new annual low today. Heading into today, the stock was already showing a year-to-date loss of 51%. This is on top of last week's warning.

Now, let's talk about the ugly. According to Zacks, 20 of 30 analysts (67 percent) currently rank the stock with a "buy" rating. And, according to Thomson Financial, the average 12-month price target for INTC is 17.72. In other words, the Street loves the stock. Two-thirds believe the stock is a buy and the average price target represents a gain of nearly 40% from current levels. That seems fairly optimistic given the stock's performance.

So, what about the good? Well, I am afraid I don't have much. At least not right now. Intel is a bellwether name and I don't believe the company is going to go under. Perhaps that same belief is fueling the optimism above. However, just because the company isn't going under, that doesn't mean the stock is going to go up. I refer to the optimism as the "ugly" because it represents overhead supply. Bottoms typically aren't formed until after you hit the shakeout phase. That opens up the path for a rally by removing some of the overhead supply. In the case of Intel, it seems that supply is still very abundant. That may be part of the reason that the stock never resumed its role as a market leader. As the monthly chart shows, the stock was never really able to show a sustained rally after the bubble burst.

Chart Courtesy of Thomson Financial

I think the key to a bottom may be an eventual capitulation by the Street. Unfortunately, it doesn't seem like we are near that point yet.