A New Low for Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (CTRP)

Tags: CTRP
19 Nov 12:55am
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Shares of Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (CTRP) are under pressure today after some disappointing news last night. The stock is down more than 20% and this leaves the chart showing signs of a technical breakdown. Here are the important levels that I see...


Chart Courtesy of Thomson Financial

This weekly chart gives us an intermediate-term perspective. What is concerning is that we see an aggressive downtrend in place since the May peak and a break of support near 25. This level had acted as minor support for much of 2006 and was the site of the lows last month. The daily chart below highlights the recent action.


Chart Courtesy of Thomson Financial

Here we get a closer look at the aggressiveness of the downtrend. In the last 6 months the stock has dropped from 60 to below 20. Today's gap low is taking out the previous low for this month and has forced the stock to a new annual low. It has also pushed the shares into a short-term oversold condition. This could help set the stage for a short-term bounce but that former support now looms as overhead resistance. If we do see an oversold bounce, I would expect selling pressure to kick in near the October lows.

In terms of the climatic fear that can signal a bottom, I don't see much support for that yet from the sentiment profile. There are some signs of mild skepticism from the put/call ratio, short interest, and analyst ratings but it would be hard to call that out of line given the price action. Going forward, I would like to see skepticism increase, especially on any bounces. For now though, it seems that more of a shakeout may be needed.


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Schaeffer’s Investment Research, founded by Bernie Schaeffer in 1981, is a research-driven provider of investment research and recommendations featuring a unique, time-tested analysis of investor expectations. Schaeffer's contrarian approach, called Expectational Analysis®, focuses on stocks with technical and fundamental trends that run counter to investor expectations. The firm publishes Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor, the nation's leading options subscription publication and it's website, www.SchaeffersResearch.com, is recognized as one of the leading information sources for stock and options traders and was cited as the top options website by both Forbes and Barron's.