The Risk for eBay Inc (EBAY)

Tags: EBAY
7 Oct 3:00am
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Earlier today I noted some news out of eBay Inc (EBAY) which Elizabeth Harrow details here. With the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) now down 800 points I was hesitant to come back to eBay but I thought I should at least touch on the points I made last month in - Is the Worst Yet to Come for eBay Inc. (EBAY)? - where I discussed the risks to the stock.

Shares of EBAY are down 11% here and hitting a new annual low. Some of this loss could be the function of the broad market malaise (a description I just heard a TV commentator use) but I still think there is a breakdown to be aware of.


Chart Courtesy of Thomson Financial

When I profiled this chart last month, I said the following...

    "As it stands now, EBAY is flirting with support than has been in place since mid-2003. If the bulls continue to throw in the towel, which I think is likely, it would add selling pressure to a stock that is breaking support. That has the potential to feed on itself. I think this is a very vulnerable situation. It is possible that the bulls step up and defend the stock here but this hasn't exactly been a market where convictions run high. "
The stock has now broken the mid-2006 bottom. This extends the downtrend from the December 2004 peak.

According to Zacks, 9 of 19 analysts (47 percent) currently rank the stock with a "buy" rating. Three months ago 61 percent of the ratings were "buys". I think we are seeing a sentiment shift as the Street walks away from the stock and today's breakdown isn't going to help that situation. Yes, part of the decline could be related to the broad market woes, but I would still think the overwhelming risk is that these former bulls sell into rallies and cap bounces.


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Schaeffer’s Investment Research, founded by Bernie Schaeffer in 1981, is a research-driven provider of investment research and recommendations featuring a unique, time-tested analysis of investor expectations. Schaeffer's contrarian approach, called Expectational Analysis®, focuses on stocks with technical and fundamental trends that run counter to investor expectations. The firm publishes Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor, the nation's leading options subscription publication and it's website, www.SchaeffersResearch.com, is recognized as one of the leading information sources for stock and options traders and was cited as the top options website by both Forbes and Barron's.