Level 3 Communications Inc (LVLT) - What to Watch on a Rally

Tags: LVLT
29 Oct 11:08pm
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Shares of Level 3 Communications Inc (LVLT) are showing some activity this morning as the stock gains more than 20%. While the stock does trade for around $1 a share, this is a company with a market cap of $1.5 billion. Here are a couple of points to keep in mind amid this rally. Let's start with the daily chart.


Chart Courtesy of Thomson Financial

Here we see the near-term downtrend that has been in place for the last month. After breaking support near 2.50, the shares dropped to 60 cents as they pushed into a short-term oversold reading. The stock is now trying to bounce out of that oversold condition. That former support now looms as overhead resistance, but the stock would have to more than double to reach that area. A look to the intraday chart shows a more immediate challenge for the equity.


Chart Courtesy of Thomson Financial

This 15-minute bar chart shows the action for the last 10 days. Here we can see the significance of the area near 1.25. This was support for a number of intraday bounces and now represents potential overhead resistance.

How the stock acts at this area should give a clue to how strong the underlying buying demand is.

One thing that could help fuel a rally here is short interest. (Though, to be fair, I did point this out a couple of months ago and was proven quite wrong.)

According to data collected by our Quantified Analysis group, 15% of the stock's float is currently sold short. The chart to the right shows that short interest increased sharply in the first half of this year.

These proved to be smart bets as the stock did plunge. However, now that we are seeing a bounce after hitting new lows, I am wondering if some of the short sellers will now be looking to lock in profits. If so, that could help add buying demand. If the stock is going to mount a successful bounce out of the oversold readings, the first hurdle to overcome is near-term resistance shown in the intraday chart.


Copyright Schaeffer's Investment Research http://www.schaeffersresearch.com

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Schaeffer’s Investment Research, founded by Bernie Schaeffer in 1981, is a research-driven provider of investment research and recommendations featuring a unique, time-tested analysis of investor expectations. Schaeffer's contrarian approach, called Expectational Analysis®, focuses on stocks with technical and fundamental trends that run counter to investor expectations. The firm publishes Bernie Schaeffer's Option Advisor, the nation's leading options subscription publication and it's website, www.SchaeffersResearch.com, is recognized as one of the leading information sources for stock and options traders and was cited as the top options website by both Forbes and Barron's.